Oscar Predictions 2013: Our Picks Thus Far

Meet our new awards expert Joe Reid — keep up with his column for the predictions, news and opinions you’ll need to sound well-informed at parties for the entire awards season.

Six short weeks remain until the Oscar nominations are announced and the picture is definitely clearing up. Right now is the best part of the season, when ANYTHING is possible. So before we get to the precursors — critics awards next week; SAG and Golden Globe nods the week after — I thought I’d lay down some predictions based on where things stand right now in the major categories.

BEST PICTURE

 

Predicted Nominees: “Argo”, “Lincoln”, “Les Miserables”, “Zero Dark Thirty”, “Silver Linings Playbook”, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”, “Amour”.

Other Contenders: “Life of Pi”, “The Master”, “Flight, Moonrise Kingdom”, “Promised Land”.

The big story over the weekend was that both “Les Miserables” and “Zero Dark Thirty” screened for critics, and the crowds went bananas. Without any time for their impact to die down, both have suddenly become LOCKS and FRONTRUNNERS and the ONLY competition for “Lincoln”. As far as I’m concerned, if it is true that both “Les Mis” and “Zero” are the real deal (and I have no reason to think they’re not), I think what we have is a rather exciting four-horse race at the top, with “Lincoln “and “Argo” rounding things out.

Elsewhere, everybody seems to be down on “Beasts”, but I think the critics’ awards will spark a resurgence, and it will end up being the preferred Popular Indie to something like “The Master”, which makes itself so tough to love. I think “Amour” just makes it in as token highbrow prestige, while “Life of Pi” may have to sweat things out, and “Flight” could eke out an 8th-slot nomination as a nod to Grown-Up Moviemaking That Still Makes Money.

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees: Daniel Day Lewis (“Lincoln”), Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”), Denzel Washington (“Flight”), John Hawkes (“The Sessions”), Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”).

Other Contenders: Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Anthony Hopkins (“Hitchcock”), Ewan McGregor (“The Impossible”), Jamie Foxx (“Django Unchained”), Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”), Matt Damon (“Promised Land”), Richard Gere (“Arbitrage”).

Things are getting hugely competitive in Best Actor, with six incredibly solid contenders. Cooper and Jackman looked to be duking it out for that last spot, but with “Silver Linings” cresting and “Les Mis” getting wildly positive early reaction, it’s getting more and more likely that Hawkes’s slot could be in doubt. And who knows, maybe Joaquin Phoenix will get his wish and not have to worry about the Oscars this year.  Everybody beyond Cooper (and I guess Hopkins) can be considered a long shot at this point, though I maintain that a smart campaign for Richard Gere could be effective if this lineup is starting to seem a little too young. (The Academy likes their Best Actor nominees venerable.)

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees: Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Emmanuele Riva (“Amour”), Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”), Helen Mirren (“Hitchcock”).

Other Contenders: Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”), Marion Cotillard (“Rust and Bone”), Keira Knightley (“Anna Karenina”), Judi Dench (“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”).

The Best Actress field is pretty thin, but in terms of who will win, it’s the most exciting of all the acting competitions. Both Lawrence and Chastain have ascendant career trajectories that could be irresistible to voters looking to crown the Next Big Thing. Which only makes Riva more poised to make a run as the veteran dark horse. I’m not at all confident that “Hitchcock” will end up being an awards player at all, so that Mirren nomination is nothing close to secure. If those positive Naomi Watts reviews from Toronto resurface, she could easily be that fifth nominee.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees: Alan Arkin (“Argo”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”), Robert DeNiro (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”), James Spader (“Lincoln”).

Other Contenders: Leonardo DiCaprio (“Django Unchained”), Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”), John Goodman (“Flight” or “Argo”), Eddie Redmayne (“Les Miserables”), Javier Bardem (“Skyfall”), Christopher Walken (“Seven Psychopaths”).

Like Best Actor, Supporting Actor has four entrenched contenders (it’s too early to call anyone a “lock,” but if you must use that word, they would be that) plus some heavy competition for slot #5. If “The Master” continues its slide towards disfavor, Hoffman could very well get forgotten, though. Quentin Tarantino has had impeccable success in taking established actors in new directions, which could be just what DiCaprio needs to capture Academy attention again. But while I would not count out Matthew McConaughey, I think the guy I’m putting my money on at the moment is Spader. EVERY Lincoln rave ends up mentioning him. It reminds me a bit of Mark Wahlberg in “The “Departed, who was never pegged for an Oscar nomination until every single person in Hollywood said “You know who I really liked? Mark Wahlberg!”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees: Sally Field (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”), Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”), Amy Adams (“The Master”), Samantha Barks (“Les Miserables”).

Other Contenders:  Judi Dench (“Skyfall”), Helena Bonham-Carter (“Les Miserables”), Salma Hayek (“Savages”), Maggie Smith (“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”), Barbra Streisand (“The Guilt Trip”), Kristen Stewart (“On the Road”).

Most wide-open of the acting categories. Field, Hathaway, and Hunt are definitely happening. Amy Adams would be out of luck in a more competitive year, but I think she makes it now. Beyond that? Anybody’s game. Name me a contender. For God’s sake, I’ve got Streisand listed! (Though, honestly, can you imagine a more perfect Golden Globe nominee?) I just want to say right now: Salma Hayek could DEFINITELY happen, if they only campaign for it. Somebody campaign for it. Please.

Categories: Awards

Tags: Argo, ben affleck, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, steven spielberg, the master, The Sessions, This is 40, Zero Dark Thirty, Moonrise Kingdom, Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, The Master, Flight, The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, Inside Llewyn Davis